Euro Dropped

Investing.com - The euro dropped in Asia on Monday as Greece's anti-austerity Syriza party won the country's snap national elections Sunday, but may fall shy of an absolute majority in the 300-seat parliament and need some outside support, while the yen strengthened after better than expected trade data and safe-haven status.

EUR/USD traded at 1.110, down 0.84%, while AUD/USD trended lower as well at 0.78614, down 0.55%. USD/JPY traded at 117.33, down 0.34%.

The party has pledged to force Greece’s creditors to renegotiate the terms of the country’s €240 billion euro financial bailout, which has roiled markets and imperiled moves to provide more funding for the country.

Japan's December trade balance showed a deficit of ¥660.7 billion,narrower than the deficit of ¥740 billion yen expected, and narrower than the ¥829 billion deficit seen in November.

The Bank of Japan's minutes on monetary policy showed its focus on inflation is with expectations from consumers are key for policy going forward.

Last week, the euro fell to fresh 11-year lows against the dollar on Friday and hit a seven year trough against the pound, a day after the European Central Bank launched a large scale quantitative easing program to combat slowing growth and inflation in the euro area.

The drop in the single currency came after ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled a €1.2 trillion asset purchase program on Thursday. The central bank will purchase €60 billion in assets per month, starting in March and continuing until late 2016.

Draghi said the program would help return inflation back to the bank’s 2% target. Expectations had been building ahead of the ECB meeting after official figures showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro area fell into negative territory in December, dropping 0.2%.

Draghi acknowledged the action the ECB took last year was “insufficient” to ward off the threat of deflation in the region.

The dollar remained broadly stronger, boosted by the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Japan.

The Bank of Japan held off on expanding its monetary easing scheme on Wednesday and instead expanded a loan scheme aimed at boosting lending.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 51% to 95.81.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s preliminary data on fourth quarter growth, while the latest euro zone inflation data is also due out on Friday.

Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy statement will be closely watched, while New Zealand’s central bank is also to hold a policy meeting.

On Monday, in Germany, the Ifo research group is to publish its report on business climate.

The U.K. is to release private sector data on mortgage approvals.

Forex - Euro drops as Greece anti-austerity party wins polls

Investing.com - The euro dropped in early Asia on Monday as Greece's anti-austerity Syriza party won the country's snap national elections Sunday, according to the first official projections from Greece's Interior Ministry, but may fall shy of an absolute majority in the 300-seat parliament and need some outside support.

EUR/USD traded at 1.1155, down 0.44%, while AUD/USD trended lower as well at 0.7875, down 0.42%. USD/JPY traded at 117.66, down 0.11%, on safe haven demand. 

The party has pledged to force Greece’s creditors to renegotiate the terms of the country’s €240 billion euro financial bailout, which has roiled markets and imperiled moves to provide more funding for the country.

Japan's December trade balance is due at 0850 local time with a deficit of ¥740 billion yen expected, narrower than the ¥829 billion deficit seen in November.

The Bank of Japan is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective

Last week, the euro fell to fresh 11-year lows against the dollar on Friday and hit a seven year trough against the pound, a day after the European Central Bank launched a large scale quantitative easing program to combat slowing growth and inflation in the euro area.

The drop in the single currency came after ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled a €1.2 trillion asset purchase program on Thursday. The central bank will purchase €60 billion in assets per month, starting in March and continuing until late 2016.

Draghi said the program would help return inflation back to the bank’s 2% target. Expectations had been building ahead of the ECB meeting after official figures showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro area fell into negative territory in December, dropping 0.2%.

Draghi acknowledged the action the ECB took last year was “insufficient” to ward off the threat of deflation in the region.

The dollar remained broadly stronger, boosted by the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Japan.

The Bank of Japan held off on expanding its monetary easing scheme on Wednesday and instead expanded a loan scheme aimed at boosting lending.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was not yet traded at 95.32, it's close on Friday.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s preliminary data on fourth quarter growth, while the latest euro zone inflation data is also due out on Friday.

Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy statement will be closely watched, while New Zealand’s central bank is also to hold a policy meeting.

On Monday, in Germany, the Ifo research group is to publish its report on business climate.

The U.K. is to release private sector data on mortgage approvals.


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Forex - Australia dollar weaker as survey shows muted inflation outlook

Investing.com - The Australian dollar fell furtehr on Monday as a survey on inflation showed a benign outlook that implied no changes in current interest rate policy.
AUD/USD traded at 0.82812, down 0.20%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 117.06, down 0.35%
Australia's December TD-MI inflation gauge is due at 1030 Sydney (2330 GMT). The gauge rwas flat, compared to a 0.1% gain in November, taking year-on-year to the bottom of RBA's target band and forcasting the central bank will hold the cash rate at the current record low 2.5% for all of 2015.
Later in the day, Japan's December Consumer Confidence Survey is due at 1400 in Tokyo (0500 GMT). In November, the consumer confidence index fell 1.2 points to a seasonally adjusted 37.7, posting the fourth straight monthly drop and hitting the lowest since 37.0 in April. At the same time, the Japan Department Stores Association releases December sales. Combined sales at department stores in December are expected to post a ninth straight year-on-year drop as December had one less Sunday compared to a year before.
On Monday, Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation. In the euro zone, Germany’s Bundesbank is to publish its monthly report and U.S. markets will remain closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.
Last week, thehe euro and the dollar pushed higher against the Swiss franc on Friday, a day after an unexpected move by the Swiss National Bank to abandon its currency peg against the euro, while the dollar rose to fresh 12-year highs against the euro ahead of expected monetary easing by the European Central Bank as early as next week.
The euro posted its largest ever single-day decline against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the SNB surprised markets by scrapping the 1.20 per euro exchange rate floor it imposed in September 2011.
The central bank also cut interest rates deeper into negative territory, a move intended to dissuade investors from buying the franc.
SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said Thursday the exchange rate cap had “protected the Swiss economy from serious harm” but added that maintaining the policy was not “sustainable or sensible in the long term.”
The shock move indicated that the SNB sees a high likelihood that the ECB will implement quantitative easing measures at its upcoming meeting on Thursday.
An interim ruling last Wednesday, which is likely to be accepted by the European Court of Justice, said the ECB was free to pursue a bond purchasing program without legal challenge.
The diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve, which is poised to raise interest rates and central banks in Europe and Japan has seen the dollar strengthen broadly in recent months.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell 0.04 to 93.01.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Thursday’s outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting and the banks post policy meeting press conference will be closely watched.
Meanwhile, China is to release data on economic growth while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada are also to hold monetary policy meetings.

Forex- Aussie, yen down ahead of Australia price, Japan confidence data

Investing.com - The yen and Aussie held slightly weaker in early Asia Monday ahead as investors look ahead to data on inflation and consumer confidence.

AUD/USD traded at 0.8222, down 0.07%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 117.43, down 0.04%

Australia's December TD-MI inflation gauge is due at 1030 Sydney (2330 GMT). The gauge rose by 0.1% month-on-month in November to be up 2.2% year-on-year. It is likely the December data could show a month-on-month fall, and possibly take year-on-year to the bottom of RBA's target band. Also, important in the data will be TD's forecast for fourth quarter inflation based on this gauge.

Later in the day, Japan's December Consumer Confidence Survey is due at 1400 in Tokyo (0500 GMT). In November, the consumer confidence index fell 1.2 points to a seasonally adjusted 37.7, posting the fourth straight monthly drop and hitting the lowest since 37.0 in April. At the same time, the Japan Department Stores Association releases December sales. Combined sales at department stores in December are expected to post a ninth straight year-on-year drop as December had one less Sunday compared to a year before. 

On Monday, Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation. In the euro zone, Germany’s Bundesbank is to publish its monthly report and U.S. markets will remain closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

Last week, thehe euro and the dollar pushed higher against the Swiss franc on Friday, a day after an unexpected move by the Swiss National Bank to abandon its currency peg against the euro, while the dollar rose to fresh 12-year highs against the euro ahead of expected monetary easing by the European Central Bank as early as next week.

The euro posted its largest ever single-day decline against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the SNB surprised markets by scrapping the 1.20 per euro exchange rate floor it imposed in September 2011.

The central bank also cut interest rates deeper into negative territory, a move intended to dissuade investors from buying the franc.

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said Thursday the exchange rate cap had “protected the Swiss economy from serious harm” but added that maintaining the policy was not “sustainable or sensible in the long term.”

The shock move indicated that the SNB sees a high likelihood that the ECB will implement quantitative easing measures at its upcoming meeting on Thursday.

An interim ruling last Wednesday, which is likely to be accepted by the European Court of Justice, said the ECB was free to pursue a bond purchasing program without legal challenge.

The diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve, which is poised to raise interest rates and central banks in Europe and Japan has seen the dollar strengthen broadly in recent months.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell 0.04% to 93.04.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Thursday’s outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting and the banks post policy meeting press conference will be closely watched.

Meanwhile, China is to release data on economic growth while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada are also to hold monetary policy meetings.

Forex - EUR/CHF weekly outlook: January 19 - 23

Investing.com - The euro regained some ground against the Swiss franc on Friday after posting its largest ever one day decline against the franc in the previous session and hit fresh 12-year lows against the dollar amid prospects for monetary easing by the European Central Bank as early as this week.
The euro posted its largest ever single-day decline against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank abandoned its 1.20 per euro exchange rate cap that it imposed in September 2011.
SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said Thursday the cap had “protected the Swiss economy from serious harm” but added that maintaining the policy was not “sustainable or sensible in the long term.”
“The euro has depreciated considerably against the U.S. dollar and this, in turn, has caused the Swiss franc to weaken against the U.S. dollar. In these circumstances, the SNB concluded that enforcing and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer justified,” the central bank said.

The central bank also cut interest rates deeper into negative territory, a move intended to dissuade investors from buying the franc.
The diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve, which is poised to raise interest rates and central banks in Europe and Japan, has seen the dollar strengthen broadly in recent months.
The surprise move indicated that the SNB is anticipating that the ECB will implement quantitative easing measures at its upcoming meeting on Thursday, in an attempt to spur inflation and growth in the euro area.
An interim ruling last Wednesday, which is likely to be accepted by the European Court of Justice, said the ECB was free to pursue a bond purchasing program without legal challenge.
EUR/CHF was trading at 0.9930 late Friday, up 1.75% for the day after falling to all-time lows of 0.8696 on Thursday. The pair still ended the week with losses of more than 17%.
USD/CHF was up 2.25% to 0.8586 late Friday, having recovered from the lows of 0.7360 struck in the previous session. The franc still ended the week with gains of 15% against the dollar.
EUR/USD was down 0.55% at 1.1567 in late trade on Friday, after falling to lows of 1.1461 earlier in the day, the weakest since November 2003.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Thursday’s outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting and the banks post policy meeting press conference will be closely watched.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, January 19
Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.
In the euro zone, Germany’s Bundesbank is to publish its monthly report.
U.S. markets will remain closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.
Tuesday, January 20
The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.
Wednesday, January 21
The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.
Thursday, January 22
The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.
The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims.
Friday, January 23
The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on private sector activity, while Germany and France are to also to publish data on private sector growth.
The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity and a private sector report on existing home sales.

FX broker FXCM gets rescue from Jefferies parent Leucadia


Retail foreign exchange broker FXCM Inc. (NYSE:FXCM) reeling after customers lost more than $200 million from the surging Swiss franc, will get a $300 million loan from Leucadia National Corp (NYSE:LUK) to keep operating, the companies said in a statement Friday.
Large global banks and retail brokerages were hit hard by the Swiss National Bank's sudden move Thursday to scrap its three-year-old cap on the value of the Swiss franc against the euro (EUR/CHF).
FXCM said Thursday that client losses may have left the brokerage with too little capital.
Leucadia, the parent of investment bank Jefferies, which advised on the deal, will invest $300 million in a two-year senior secured term loan with an initial coupon of 10 percent. The deal, which was expected to close Friday afternoon, also gives Leucadia an undisclosed percentage of a potential sale of FXCM.
"Leucadia`s support and this financing are by far the best alternative for FXCM, our customers, our shareholders, and all other relevant constituencies," said Drew Niv, FXCM chief executive officer.
Top executives from FXCM went through company books until at least 5 a.m. on Friday, according to a source close to FXCM. Regulators were in FXCM's offices in downtown Manhattan, according to two sources.
FXCM needed to act quickly. In its Thursday statement, the brokerage said client losses would result in a shortfall to the company of about $225 million and that it "may be in breach of some regulatory capital requirements."
"The key factor here is time, as regulators tend to be impatient once capital requirements are breached," analysts at Credit Suisse wrote in a Friday note.
In its statement, Richard Handler, Leucadia's CEO, and Brian Friedman, the firm's president, said they had worked with Jefferies and FXCM over the "past approximately 36 hours" to come to a deal. UBS acted as financial advisor to FXCM.
FXCM shares lost nearly 90 percent in premarket activity on Friday to $1.49 a share, and did not trade during the regular New York Stock Exchange trading session. The shares resumed trading in the after-hours session, recovering a bit from the premarket losses, but the stock (FXCM.K) was still down 70 percent to $3.81 a share from Thursday's close of $12.63.
Those who sold the stock in premarket action Friday morning will take big losses.
"The fact is if you sold at $1.49 in premarket that’s a decision you made and you’re out of it," said Ken Polcari, director of the NYSE floor division at O’Neil Securities in New York.
Shares of Leucadia were halted during the trading day at $21.84 a share. They lost 0.8 percent to fall to $21.04 after resuming trading in after-hours action.
In Washington, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said earlier that the agency was reviewing the company's situation but declined to give details.
FXCM and other brokerages were hit hard after the Swiss National Bank surprised markets by abandoning its cap against the euro. That caused the euro to suffer its biggest-ever one-day fall against the franc, dropping 18 percent for the session and losing some 30 percent on an intraday basis.
'BLACK SWAN' EVENT
Retail currency trade makes up nearly 4 percent of global daily spot turnover of nearly $2 trillion, the latest survey from the Bank of International Settlements shows, having grown from almost nothing in the 1990s.
In a note to clients, Sandler O'Neill analyst Richard Repetto wrote "we've been informed that FXCM offered clients leverage of 50x (often the standard in the U.K.) for EUR/CHF(euro-Swiss franc) trades."
"We believe this high leverage combined with the unique (black swan-like) event of the floating of the Swiss franc contributed to the steep customer losses at FXCM," he wrote.
Black swans are events seen as improbable and come as a major surprise to the market. Such events happen much more often than most market participants expect.
Shares of other brokers with retail foreign exchange businesses were mixed on Friday.
Interactive Brokers Group Inc (NASDAQ:IBKR) lost 0.6 percent to close at $28.09 a share. The company said customers lost $120 million beyond their collateral, equal to less than 2.5 percent of the company's net worth.
GAIN Capital Holding Inc (NYSE:GCAP) dropped as low as $7.75 in early trading but closed up 2.9 percent to $8.52, after the company said it generated a profit on Thursday from trading.

CFTC - week ending January 13: speculators more bearish on EUR, GBP, JPY

Investing.com - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly Commitments of Traders report for the week ending January 13 on Friday.

Speculative positioning in the CME currency, commodity and index futures:
    LongShort
 NetPriorChangeGrossChangeGrossChange
EUR-167.9k-161.0k-6.8k50.9k4.8k218.7k11.7k
GBP-37.1k-25.6k-11.6k41.9k2.8k79.1k14.3k
JPY-94.6k-90.1k-4.5k25.9k-7.3k120.5k-2.7k
CHF-26.4k-24.2k-2.3k4.9k-0.6k31.4k1.6k
CAD-21.2k-17.1k-4.1k27.6k-3.7k48.8k0.4k
AUD-45.4k-48.7k3.3k14.8k-2.2k60.1k-5.5k
NZD-1.8k-0.9k-0.9k8.4k-1.5k10.2k-0.6k
MXN-54.3k-64.5k10.2k17.3k-1.4k71.6k-11.5k
S&P115.8k170.5k-54.7k468.6k-32.4k352.8k22.3k
Gold130.2k122.2k8.0k193.0k5.3k62.7k-2.8k
Silver39.9k32.0k7.9k59.8k4.9k19.9k-3.0k
Copper-35.8k-41.3k5.4k53.4k7.5k89.2k2.0k